2,000 Greater & Lesser Mysteries/2,000 Greater and Lesser Mysteries.iso/govern/fbi/mys00748.txt

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January 1990


                  TOMORROW'S AMERICA:
           LAW ENFORCEMENT'S COMING CHALLENGE

                          By

                      Rob McCord
                         and
                     Elaine Wicker


      Powerful economic and social indicators point to stiff
challenges for law enforcement policymakers. During the next
decade, law enforcement officials will be forced to wrestle with
disruptive social, demographic, and technological changes.  And
struggles to confront many of the troublesome trends facing the
Nation will be played out against a backdrop of financial
cutbacks from Federal, State, and local governments.

     Many analysts point to difficult issues and conflicting
trends: While cost-cutting throughout government is forcing
cutbacks in services, public pressure for more effective service
is growing. Jobs increasingly require skilled personnel; yet, the
pool of qualified young workers is shrinking, especially the pool
supplying law enforcement's traditional recruits young, white
males.  Information about economic and demographic trends is
available, but useful interpretation is complicated by the widely
varying ways national trends play out in diverse geographic
areas.

     Looming challenges and expected cutbacks are certain to
force more reliance on information and information technologies.
The Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) reports
that information technologies will reshape virtually every
product, service, and job in the United States during the next
decade.  Effective law enforcement may hinge, to a large degree,
on effective use of information technologies, and successful law
enforcement will certainly demand accurate anticipation of local
and national emerging trends and issues.

     With the challenge of foresight in mind, this article
briefly outlines a number of significant demographic and economic
trends and their probable implications for law enforcement.

TRENDS

     The U.S. population is aging.  In 1996 the first wave of
``baby boomers'' will turn 50, marking the start of a ``senior
boom'' in the United States. By 2010 one in every four Americans
will be 55 or older. (1)

     The age difference in population composition is especially
evident when comparing 1950 to the year 2000. In 1950 there were
12.3 million people aged 65 and older, or 8.2 percent of a
population of 150.7 million. By the year 2000, an estimated 34.9
million elderly will constitute 13 percent of the population, and
by the year 2015, Americans aged over 65 will make up fully 20
percent of the U.S. population. (2)

     Over the next decade, more than 90 percent of new entrants
into the workforce will be women, minorities, and immigrants, but
almost two-thirds  will be women.  In 1960 only 11 percent of
women with children under the age of 6 were employed; today, 52
percent work outside the home. (3)

     The minority population is increasing rapidly, and by 1990,
20 percent of American children will be black or Asian.  By the
year 2000, this figure will grow to 21 percent and then increase
to 23 percent by 2010. When projections for white Hispanic
children are added, the figures increase dramatically to 31
percent, 34 percent, and 38 percent, respectively. By 2010, 25
percent of the children in 19 States will be black, Hispanic,
Asian, or some other minority. In the District of Columbia and
six States, more than 50 percent of children will be minority
group members.  Minorities will constitute the majority of
children in New Mexico (77 percent), California (57 percent),
Texas (57 percent), New York (53 percent), Florida (53 percent),
and Louisiana (50 percent). (4)

     Immigrants account for an ever-increasing share of the U.S.
population and workforce.  Legal immigration during the 1980s has
accounted for an average of 570,000 people per year, which is 30
percent higher than the average for the 1970s and significantly
more than in any year from 1924 to 1978. (5)

     The 10 metropolitan areas with the highest number of
immigrants in rank order are New York, Los Angeles-Long Beach,
Chicago, Miami-Hialeah, San Francisco, Washington, DC (including
the Maryland and Virginia suburbs), Anaheim-Santa Ana, San Jose,
Oakland, and San Diego. These cities and 28 others all receive
approximately 2,000 immigrants each year from 16 or more
different countries.

     In 1980 there were somewhere between 2.5 and 3.5 million
illegal aliens in the United States.  One estimate holds that
illegal aliens are growing in number at a rate of 100,000 to
300,000 a year, while  several hundred aliens with nonimmigrant
status also live illegally in the United States. (6)

     The labor force growth is slowing, and the number of
``entry-level'' workers is decreasing.  Between 1986 and the year
2000, the overall growth of the labor force is projected to be
1.2 percentthe slowest rate since the 1930s and about one-half
the rate of U.S. labor force growth experienced between 1972 and
1986.  And in the 1990s the number of traditional entry-level
workers--those aged 16-34 will actually shrink. (7)

     The number of single parent households is likely to
increase.  More than 25 million women head their own households,
or 28 percent of the Nation's 91 million households.  Seven
percent of these are female-headed, single-parent families with
children under the age of 18.  Women who live alone account for
52 percent of female-headed households; over one-half of these
women are 65 years of age or older. (8)

     In terms of race and ethnic origin, dramatic differences
emerge.  Two-thirds of black and Hispanic households are headed
by women, as compared with 36 percent of white households headed
by females. By the year 2000, women will head 29 percent of
households. (9)  And if present trends continue, one-half of the
marriages that take place today will end in divorce a decade
from now.

     Jobs that are declining in number are those that could be
filled by those with fewer skills. The fastest-growing jobs are
those that require more language, math, and reasoning skills. For
the next decade, 9 out of 10 new jobs will be in the service
sector, in fields that generally require high levels of education
and skill. Ten years ago, 77 percent of jobs required some type
of generating, processing, retrieving, or distributing
information. By the year 2000, heavily computerized information
processing will encompass 95 percent of the jobs. (10)  Some
projections about employment trends suggest that by the 1990s,
anyone who reads below a 12th-grade level will be excluded from
employment possibilities.

     Statistics indicate the United States is becoming a
bifurcated society with more wealth, more poverty, and a
shrinking middle class. The gap between the ``haves'' and the
``have nots'' is widening.  The percentage of the population
earning middle-class wages, between $15,000 and $49,000 per year,
has dropped over the past decade. (11)  More than 32 million of the
Nation's approximately 240 million citizens have incomes below
the poverty level. At the same time, the number of households
headed by persons in the 35-50 age group with incomes of $50,000
or more is expected to almost triple by 2000. (12)

     An underclass of Americans those who are chronically poor
and live outside society's rules is growing. Data of the Urban
Institute show that between 1970 and 1980, the underclass
tripled. In 1980, 29 million Americans lived in poverty and about
1.1 million of them lived as members of the underclass. The Urban
Institute identified 880 underclass neighborhoods in the United
States in 1980, and those neighborhoods tended to be
disproportionately populated by minorities. (13)

IMPLICATIONS

      For most law enforcement officials, troublesome trends and
economic constraints are all too familiar. Throughout the next
decade, law enforcement officials will continue to face
conservative policies that translate into ``cutback management''
and continued attempts to do more with less. Public demands for
effectiveness and accountability appear likely to force law
enforcement leaders to try innovative solutions to long-existing
problems.

     Successful policing may well depend on efficient and
effective use of information.  An obviously effective use of
demographic data in efforts to conserve operating expenses lies
in the task of assigning patrol officers. A geographic area with
residents who are pre-dominately middle income, high-rise
condominium dwellers, aged 65 and older, can be policed in a
different fashion and with fewer officers than an area with a
large number of residents aged 10 to 18 years old.

     In the future, law enforcement forces will almost certainly
reflect changes in America's demographic profile and in its
social and cultural values. Dramatic changes in labor force
composition will force equally dramatic responses in hiring and
administration for law enforcement, a traditionally young, white,
male-dominated profession. Shifts toward older workers, fewer
entry-level workers, and more women, minorities and immigrants in
the population will lead law enforcement and private industry to
become more flexible in order to compete for qualified
applicants. Law enforcement agencies must devise new strategies
to attract 21-35 year olds.  This age group will be at a premium
over the next 10 years, and the trend will continue well into the
middle of the next century.

     By the year 2000, an estimated 75 percent of all workers
currently in the workforce will need retraining, and population
shifts away from dominance by white males of European heritage to
racial and ethnic diversity will bring changes in training as
well as hiring practices.  Law enforcement agencies will have to
train existing personnel, both sworn and nonsworn, and a major
thrust will likely be toward communication with
non-English-speaking communities, perhaps with incentives for
bilingualism.

     If law enforcement fails to look beyond high school
graduates as a principal source of candidates, police departments
will likely face worker shortages. Law enforcement agencies will
also face fierce competition from the private sector and from the
military for entry-level employees, such as carpenters,
electricians, plumbers, masons, construction workers, and others
in the trade industries who have historically employed marginally
educated young males.  A severe disadvantage facing law
enforcement recruiters will be wage packages; law enforcement
will most likely never be competitive with most youth-oriented
private sector employees. Historically, the view that public
service is a privilege helped to offset the disparity between
public and private sector pay.  Yet, this perspective seems to be
in decline.

     Family and lifestyle concerns are increasingly affecting the
law enforcement workplace.  America has become a society in which
women with young children have become an important part of the
workforce. The high divorce rate and increase in female-headed
households contribute to the emphasis on family issues. If law
enforcement is to attract and keep qualified workers, benefits
and workplace accommodations, such as daycare, flexible hours,
and paid maternity leave, must become a part of law enforcement's
benefits package. The private sector has been moving in this
direction with incentives and fringe benefit packages for over a
decade.

     In an era of budget constraints, adapting new policies and
practices to hold competent workers becomes critical.  As
occupational mobility increases, not only will law enforcement's
pool of ``home grown'' candidates shrink, but also the erosion of
traditional social and psychological dependence on ``place'' will
make it easier for employees to move to other jobs and locations.
Costs of training will continue to escalate. Some estimates hold
that it takes 3 to 5 years for a police officer to move from raw
recruit to novice investigator. Many law enforcement agencies
already find themselves in the position of constantly training
personnel to replace those who take other jobs.

     A rapidly changing economy will create instability for many
workers and set the stage for an upsurge in crime. Prospects for
unskilled workers are bleak.  Analysts warn that opportunities
for workers with limited education and training will diminish
considerably in the next two decades. The number of jobs
typically filled by people who have not finished high school
declined by 40 percent.  This changing workplace has been a major
factor in the growth of the underclass, since about two-thirds of
the residents of underclass areas lack even basic workplace
skills.  The Urban Institute contends that the underclass has to
be understood, in part, as a response to economic realities.
Crime is an important source of income for the underclass, and
financial incentives seem to be rising as a result of a
flourishing drug trade.

AN EXPLOSIVE MIX

     A wide variety of polls suggest an increasing number of
Americans believe drug abuse is out of control.  According to a
recent World Peace Foundation Conference report on drugs, ``The
cocaine problem has become an object of near hysteria in the
United States.'' Closely linked to that contention is the growing
notion that the drug epidemic is essentially a black urban
problem.  Blacks constitute only 12 percent of the Nation's
population, but they account for 50 percent of the heroin, 55
percent of the cocaine, and 60 percent of PCP hospital emergency
care. (14)  Yet, evidence shows that the $110 billion per year that
is lining the pockets of drug lords is not being generated only
by poor, inner-city blacks. The vast majority of that money is
coming from the 76 percent of the illegal drug users white
yuppies. (15)

     The Urban Institute warns that increasing public concern
about the most visible elements of the underclass threatens to
exacerbate racial tensions and strengthen prejudices.  The
perceived lack of equity for the disenfranchised casts government
as the ``bad guy,'' and many of the underclass see police as the
ultimate symbol of oppression.

     A compelling number of experts support the contention that
urban unrest and civil disorder are likely possibilities. The
potential for massive urban unrest and civil disturbances
reminiscent of the riots of the mid-1960s and 1970s clearly
exists.

CONCLUSION

     Economic and demographic trends portray a Nation and its
institutions struggling to respond to rapid social and economic
evolution.  Throughout the next decade, a complex array of
interdependent and competing demographic and economic forces
will prompt policymakers to seek innovative, nontraditional
approaches to hiring, training, and administration.

     In large part, effective policing in the future is closely
tied to strategic policy choices made by today's law enforcement
officials.  The long-term risks of ignoring critical shifts in
the population and the economy pose a serious threat to the
internal security of the Nation.  To reduce that threat, voters
and politicians alike may need to recalculate America's
traditional national security equation shifting scarce public
dollars from defense spending to domestic law enforcement.

FOOTNOTES

(1)  Anita Manning and David Proctor, ``Senior Boom: The
Future's New Wrinkle,''USA Today, January 31, 1989, 1D.

(2)  Ibid.

(3)  The Future World of Work:  Looking Toward the Year 2000,
The United Way, 1988, p. 19.

(4)  Joe Schwartz and Thomas Exter, ``All Our Children,''
American Demographics, May 1988, pp. 42-43.

(5)  James P. Allen and Eugene J. Turner, ``Where to Find the
New Immigrants,'' American Demographics, September 1988, pp.
22-27.

(6)  James C. Raymondo, ``How to Count Illegals, State by
States,'' American Demographics, September 1988, pp. 42-43.

(7)  Martha F. Richie, "America's New Workers," American
Demographics, February 1988, pp. 34-41.

(8)  Diane Crispell, ``Women in Charge,'' American
Demographics, September 1989, pp. 26-29.

(9)  Ibid.

(10) Marvin J. Cetron, ``Class of 2000: The Good News and the
Bad News,'' The Futurist, November-December, 1988, pp. 9-15.

(11) What Lies Ahead: Looking Toward the '90s, The United
Way, 1987, p. 41.

(12) Isabel V. Sawhill, ``The Underclass: An Overview,'' The
Public Interest, Summer 1988, pp. 3-15.

(13) Ibid.

(14) David R. Gergen, ``Drugs in White America,'' U.S. News and
World Report, September 19, 1989.

(15) Ibid.


About the authors:

     Executive Director Rob McCord and Elaine Wicker are with the
     Congressional Clearinghouse on the Future, U.S. Congress,
     Washington, D.C.